With the Canadian distribution of this rare species restricted to southern Ontario, there are few data sources available to determine changes in abundance since 1970. The Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario focuses on species occurrence and not abundance, and only covers the 20-year time period between the two Ontario Atlases (mid-1980s to mid-2000s). Nesting was first confirmed in Ontario in 1971 and, by the time of the first Atlas, small populations had become regular (James 1987). The second Ontario atlas showed little change in distribution (James 2007b). Results from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from throughout North America, where the data are based largely on birds in the United States, indicate that the continental population has increased by an estimated 48% since the early 1970s. The magnitude of increase is highest during the most recent period (2006-2016). Available BBS results for the states bordering Ontario range from increases in Michigan and Ohio, to relatively stable populations in New York and Pennsylvania (Smith, A.R., ECCC, unpublished data). However, it is unclear to what extent these results reflect the status of the species in Canada. Because of the lack of information on the species' population status in Canada, a population goal has not yet been established for this species.
Additional information on: Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) - Canadian analysis