Scientific Assessment to Inform the Identification of Critical Habitat for Woodland Caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Boreal Population, in Canada - 2011 Update

**Table 11.** Results for the Integrated Risk Assessment and for the supporting indicators assessing boreal caribou ranges based on two criteria of self-sustaining local population: 1) stable or positive population growth over the short term (≤ 20 years) estimated using Pr (λ ≥ stable), and 2) persistence over the long-term (≥ 50 years) estimated using the indicator of quasi-extinction (Pr (N≥Qext)).
Reference #	Range	Range Type ¹	Disturbance			Population size	Indicator of the range capacity to maintain a self-sustaining population			Integrated Risk Assessment
			Disturbance							Likelihood	Assessment of Self-sustainability³	Notes on interpretation
			Fire (%)	Anthropogenic (%)	Total non-overlapping (%) buffered		Stable or Positive Population Growth		Persistence
			Fire (%)	Anthropogenic (%)	Total non-overlapping (%) buffered		Pr (λ ≥ stable) habitat	Pr(λ ≥ stable) population	Pr (N≥Qext)²
Northwest Territories
1	Northwest Territories North⁴	LP	18	5	22	n/a	0.80	n/a	n/a	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a local population range (LP) as defined by the criteria used to identify a local population range in this report. Large fires have created a discontinuity in habitat that has created a North-South divide in NT. Animals from the North have traditionally moved into the South. This divide is considered temporary until the area affected by fire regenerates. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available. • Disturbance is dispersed throughout the range and a large portion originates from fire. • However, NT has detailed demographic data for study areas within the large continuous LP. For example, lambda estimates averaged over 2-3 years suggest that boreal caribou in the Gwich’in South (λ = 1.08) and Gwich’in North (λ = 1.20) study areas are experiencing positive growth (Nagy et al. 2011) consistent with risk assessment based on habitat information that the current range will likely maintain self-sustaining caribou.
2	Northwest Territories South⁴	LP	29	10	38	n/a	0.55	n/a	n/a	As likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents a local population range (LP) as defined by the criteria used to identify a local population range in this report. Animals have been reported to move between NT, BC, and AB. Large fires have created a discontinuity in habitat that has created a North-South divide in NT. Animals from the North have traditionally moved into the South. This divide is considered temporary until the area affected by fire regenerates. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available. • A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. Most of the anthropogenic disturbance is aggregated in the southern portion of the range. • However, NT has detailed demographic data for study areas within the large continuous LP. Lambda estimates averaged over 5 years suggest that boreal caribou in the Dehcho South (λ = 0.92) and Dehcho North (λ = 0.97) study areas are in decline (Larter and Allaire 2010). Lambda estimates averaged over 7 years in the South Slave (λ = 0.96) and over 5 years in the Cameron Hills (λ = 0.87) study areas are also in decline (Kelly and Cox 2011). The latter estimates suggest that the above risk assessment might be somewhat liberal, however more detailed analysis incorporating demographic data from a larger number of study areas would be necessary to ensure that the spatial variation in habitat conditions across the large continuous LP is adequately captured.
British Columbia
3	Maxhamish	LP	0.5	57	58	306	0.23	n/a	0.85	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would improve the certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
4	Calendar	LP	8	58	61	291	0.21	n/a	0.84	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. However, there is evidence that animals move between BC and NT and AB. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would improve the certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
5	Snake-Sahtahneh	LP	6	86	87	365	< 0.09	0.09	0.87	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • There is high agreement among indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The population indicator of population growth also suggests the current range will not maintain a self-sustaining population based on estimates of λ averaged over 2 years that indicate the population is in decline (λ = 0.97).
6	Parker	LP	0.5	34	34	25	0.63	n/a	0.31	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time based on some evidence. The precautionary principle is used to flag the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size (N = 25). • Poor habitat condition does not appear to represent an additive risk; the habitat indicator of population growth indicates habitat condition is sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. Factors contributing to the small population size should be investigated. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would improve the certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
7	Prophet	LP	0.4	79	79	54	< 0.09	n/a	0.54	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • The quasi-extinction indicator suggests an additive risk of extinction due to small population size (N = 54). • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would improve the certainty and potentially change the assessment.
Alberta
8	Chinchaga (incl. BC portion)	LP	8	74	76	250	0.10	<0.09	0.82	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a trans-boundary LP. AB and BC coordinate monitoring and share information on caribou in this range. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda averaged over the last 5 years that indicate that the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.91). • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population, although this indicator produces a slightly more optimistic estimate than that based on the population indicator of population growth.
9	Bistcho	LP	20	61	71	195	0.13	<0.09	0.78	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. However, evidence suggests that animals move between AB, NT and BC. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda averaged over the last 4 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.89). • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population, although this indicator produces a slightly more optimistic estimate than that based on the population indicator of population growth.
10	Yates	LP	43	21	61	350	0.21	0.90	0.87	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. However, there is evidence that animals move between AB and NT. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • Estimates of lambda averaged over two years suggest that the population is stable and very likely to be self-sustaining (λ = 1.02). Longer-term estimates of lambda would improve certainty in population indicator for population growth and potentially change the risk assessment.
11	Caribou Mountains	LP	44	23	57	315-394	0.23	<0.09	0.85-0.88	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda averaged over the last 5 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.87). • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population, although this indicator produces a slightly more optimistic estimate than that based on the population indicator of population growth. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire.
12	Little Smoky	LP	0.2	95	95	78	< 0.09	0.21	0.62	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • This range is currently under predator management. Accordingly, the risk assessment is based on the habitat indicator of population growth that indicates the current range condition is very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time in the absence of active management intervention.
13	Red Earth	LP	30	44	62	172-206	0.20	<0.09	0.76-0.80	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda average over 5 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.86). • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator for population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population, although this indicator produces a slightly more optimistic estimate than that based on the population indicator of population growth.
14	West Side Athabasca River (WSAR)	LP	4	68	69	204-272	0.13	<0.09	0.80-0.83	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda average over the last 5 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.92). • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also indicates that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population, although this indicator produces a slightly more optimistic estimate than that based on population information.
15	Richardson	LP	67	22	82	150	< 0.09	n/a	0.74	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance in this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would improve the certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
16	East Side Athabasca River (ESAR)	LP	26	77	81	90-150	< 0.09	<0.09	0.65-0.74	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda average over the last 5 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.85). • There is high agreement among indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population.
17	Cold Lake	LP	32	72	85	150	< 0.09	<0.09	0.74	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. However, evidence suggests that animals move between AB and SK. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on much evidence and primarily on estimates of lambda average over the last 5 years that indicate the population is in rapid decline (λ = 0.77). • There is high agreement among the indicators that support the assessment outcome. The habitat indicator of population growth also suggests that poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population.
18	Nipisi	LP	6	66	68	555	0.15	n/a	0.54	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • The indicator of quasi-extinction suggests an additive risk of extinction due to small population size (N = 55). • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
19	Slave Lake	LP	37	63	80	65⁵	< 0.09	n/a	0.58	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence but primarily primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • The quasi-extinction indicator suggests an additive risk of extinction due to small population size (N = 65). • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and to assess the additive risk of extinction due to small population size. Estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
Saskatchewan
20	Davy-Athabasca	CU	60	2	61	310	0.21	n/a	0.85	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
21	Clearwater	CU	69	3	70	425	0.14	n/a	0.89	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
22	Primrose-Cold Lake	CU	40	20	54	350	0.27	n/a	0.87	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Information is available suggesting that animals move between SK and AB. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
23	Highrock-Key	CU	62	4	64	1060	0.19	n/a	0.95	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
24	Smoothstone-Wapawekka	CU	17	20	33	700	0.66	0.37	0.94	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based on the population indicator of population growth that suggests the population is in decline (trend). • The habitat indicator of population growth suggests that habitat condition is likely sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • Factors contributing to the declining population trend should be investigated.
25	Steephill-Foster	CU	49	2	50	1075	0.33	n/a	0.95	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
26	Suggi-Amisk-Kississing	CU	18	8	25	430	0.74	n/a	0.89	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests habitat condition is sufficient for boreal caribou. A large portion of the disturbance in this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth. Estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
27	Pasquia-Bog	CU	12	33	44	30	0.44	0.37	0.37	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence. The precautionary principle is used to flag the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size (N = 30). • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The population indicator for population growth yielded the same risk assessment to that based on population size. The population is in decline (trend). • The habitat indicator of population size suggests that habitat condition is as likely as not to be sufficient for self-sustainability. • Factors contributing to the small population size and the declining population trend should be investigated.
Manitoba
28	The Bog	ICU	4	12	16	50-75	0.89	0.55	0.52-0.61	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence. The precautionary principle is used to flag the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size (N = 50-75). • There is partial agreement supporting the assessment outcome. The population indicator of population growth yielded the same risk assessment to that based on population size. The population is stable (trend). • The habitat indicator of population growth suggests that habitat condition is likely sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. • Factors contributing to the small population size should be investigated.
29	Kississing	ICU	39	13	52	50-75	0.31	0.55	0.52-0.61	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • The indicator of quasi-extinction suggests an additive risk of extinction associated with small population size (N = 50-75). The reported stable population trend suggests that the current range would be as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. • Discrepancy between habitat and population information should be investigated; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in the assessment.
30	Naosap	ICU	28	26	50	100-200	0.33	0.55	0.68-0.80	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • The reported trend of stable yields a more optimistic assessment, although it still suggests that the range would be as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. • Discrepancy between habitat and population information should be investigated; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
31	Reed	ICU	7	20	26	100-150	0.62	0.55	0.68-0.74	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat information and suggests that there is no additive risk of extinction associated with small population size. However, the reported trend of stable yields a more conservative assessment that suggests the range is as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
32	North Interlake	ICU	4	14	17	50-75	0.87	0.55	0.52-0.61	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence. The precautionary principle is used to flag the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size (N = 50-75). • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The reported trend of stable produces a similar risk assessment to that based on the indicator of quasi-extinction. However, poor habitat condition does not appear to represent an additive risk; the habitat indicator of population growth indicates habitat condition is sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. • Factors contributing to the small population size should be investigated; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
33	William Lake	ICU	24	10	31	25-40	0.63	0.55	0.31-0.46	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based on the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size (N = 25-40). • The habitat information and reported trend of stable yields more optimistic assessments, although these two types of information do not yield the same results. Poor habitat condition does not appear to represent an additive risk; the habitat indicator of population growth indicates habitat condition is sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. The reported stable population trend suggests that the range is as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. • A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • Factors contributing to small population size should be investigated; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
34	Wabowden	ICU	10	19	28	200-225	0.63	0.55	0.80-0.81	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence and primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to the habitat indicator for population growth. However, the reported trend of stable produces a more conservative assessment that indicates the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
35	Wapisu	ICU	10	14	24	100-125	0.83	0.55	0.68-0.70	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to the habitat indicator for population growth. However, the reported population trend of stable produces a more conservative assessment that indicates the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
36	Manitoba	CU	22	8	28	775-1585	0.70	0.55	0.94-0.97	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to the habitat indicator of population growth. However, the reported population trend of stable produces a more conservative assessment that indicates the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment. • Averaging habitat conditions over a large continuous area may mask spatial variation in disturbance. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. Disturbance created by fire is dispersed across the range. Anthropogenic disturbance is also dispersed across the range with a higher concentration in the western versus eastern portion of the range.
37	Atikaki-Berens	ICU	32	5	35	300-500	0.61	0.55	0.85-0.91	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Available information suggests that animals move between MB and ON (Berens range). Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests habitat condition is sufficient to maintain caribou. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the outcome assessment. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat information and suggests that there is no additive risk of extinction associated with small population size. However, the reported trend of stable produces a slightly more conservative assessment that suggests the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
38	Owl-Flinstone	LP	25	18	39	78	0.52	0.55	0.62	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The population indicator of population growth produces a similar risk assessments to that based on habitat information. The population is reported as stable (trend). • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
Ontario
39	Sydney	ICU	28	33	58	n/a	0.23	n/a	n/a	unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indictor available for this range. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size; estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in the assessment.
40	Berens	ICU	34	7	40	n/a	0.52	n/a	n/a	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. • Available information suggests that animals move between ON and MB (Atikaki-Berens range). Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available for this range. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size; estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
41	Churchill	ICU	6	28	31	n/a	0.67	n/a	n/a	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available for this range. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size; estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
42	Brightsand	ICU	18	28	42	n/a	0.46	n/a	n/a	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available for this range. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size; estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
43	Nipigon	LP	7	25	31	300	0.67	0.55	0.85	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat information and suggests that there is no additive risk of extinction associated with small population size. However, the reported stable trend for population growth produces a more conservative assessment that suggests the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
44	Coastal	CU	0	16	16	492	0.87	n/a	0.90	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit consisting of 3 occupied islands and shorelines including Pukaskwa Park. Range delineation is currently being refined. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on some evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth and is supported by the indicator used to assess the increased risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size. • Estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
45	Pagwachuan	ICU	0.9	26	27	n/a	0.72	n/a	n/a	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size. Estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
46	Kesagami	ICU	3	36	38	492	0.54	<0.09	0.90	very unlikely	NSS	• Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based on estimates of lambda averaged over 1998-2001 that suggest the population in rapid decline (λ = 0.88). • Poor habitat condition does not appear to be contributing to the rapid population declines. The habitat indicator of population growth suggests that the habitat condition is as likely as not to support a self-sustaining population. • Factors contributing to population decline should be investigated.
47	Far North	CU	14	1	15	n/a	0.88	n/a	n/a	likely	SS	• Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range delineation is currently being refined. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population. The risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the additive risk of quasi-extinction associated with small population size; estimates of population growth and size would increase certainty in the assessment. • Averaging habitat conditions over a large continuous area may mask spatial variation in disturbance. Fire is the predominant disturbance type within the range. Fires affect and are dispersed over the western portion of the range.
Quebec
48	Val d'Or	LP	0.1	60	60	30	0.21	0.37	0.37	unlikely	NSS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based primarily on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • There is high agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat information and suggests that there is an additive risk of extinction associated with small population size (N = 30). Similarly, the reported declining trend also suggests the current range is not self-sustaining. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
49	Charlevoix	LP	4.0	77	80	75	< 0.09	0.55	0.62	very unlikely	NSS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • The reported stable population trend estimate produces a more optimistic assessment that the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
50	Pipmuacan	ICU	11.1	51	59	134	0.22	0.55	0.71	unlikely	NSS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests poor habitat condition is having adverse effects on the population. • The reported stable population trend estimate produces a more optimistic assessment than that based on the habitat indicator of population growth that suggests the population is as likely as not to be self-sustaining; improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
51	Manouane	ICU	17.9	23	39	358	0.53	0.55	0.87	as likely as not	NSS/SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is high agreement among the indicators that supporting the assessment outcome. The reported stable trend produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat indicator of population growth • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
52	Manicouagan	ICU	3.2	32	33	181	0.66	0.71	0.77	likely	SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents an improved conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is high agreement among the indicators that the current range will maintain a self-sustaining population The reported stable trend produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat indicator of population growth. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
53	Quebec	CU	19.9	12	30	9000	0.68	0.55	1.00	likely	SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators supporting the assessment outcome. The indicator of quasi-extinction produces a similar assessment to that based on the habitat information and suggests that there is no additive risk of extinction associated with small population size. However, the reported trend of stable yields a more conservative assessment that suggests the range is as likely as not to maintain a self-sustaining population. • Improved estimates of population growth (lambda) would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment. • Averaging habitat conditions over a large continuous area may mask spatial variation in disturbance. Disturbance created by fire is dispersed across the range. The majority of anthropogenic disturbance is aggregated in the southern portion of this range.
Labrador (Newfoundland)
54	Lac Joseph	LP	7.3	1	8	1101	0.90	n/a	0.95	very likely	SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. This risk assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth; estimates of population growth would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
55	Red Wine Mountain	LP	5.1	3	8	97	0.90	0.37	0.67	unlikely	NSS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are unlikely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence, but there is low agreement among the indicators. The precautionary principle was applied to resolve the discrepancy between habitat and population data. The risk assessment is based primarily on the population indicator of population growth that suggests the population is declining (trend). • Poor habitat condition does not appear to be contributing to the population decline; the habitat indicator of population growth suggests that habitat condition is sufficient to maintain a self-sustaining population. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • Factors contributing to population decline should be investigated.
56	Mealy Mountain	LP	0.4	1	2	2106	0.91	0.55	0.98	very likely	SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a LP. • Current range conditions are very likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The risk assessment is based on considerable evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth. • There is partial agreement among the indicators that supporting the assessment outcome. The population indicator of population growth suggests the population is self-sustaining based on estimates of lambda averaged over the last 2 years that suggest the population is increasing (λ = 1.04). Lambda was estimated from available recruitment and survival data. • Longer-term estimates of λ would increase certainty in and potentially change the assessment.
57	Labrador	CU	6.5	2	9	n/a	0.90	n/a	n/a	very likely	SS	• No updated demographic information was provided for this risk assessment. • Delineated range represents a conservation unit. Range boundaries may change with additional information. • Current range conditions are very likely to maintain a self-sustaining population over time. The assessment is based on limited evidence but primarily on the habitat indicator of population growth because it is the only indicator available. A large portion of the disturbance on this range is due to fire. • There are insufficient available data to estimate the population indicator of population growth and the indicator of quasi-extinction; estimates of population growth and population size would improve the certainty in and potentially change the assessment.

¹ Range type as per Figure 4: CU: Conservation Unit; ICU: Improved Conservation Unit; LP: Local Population.
² This column reports on the indicator of quasi-extinction used to flag the increased risk of extinction associated with small population size. This indicator is estimated using range-specific population sizes and assuming good demographic conditions (stable growth), i.e., isolating the effect of population size on persistence. No quasi-extinction estimate was calculated in the absence of population size data.
³ Categories for the assessment of self-sustainability include: SS: Range Self-Sustaining; NSS: Range Not Self-Sustaining; NSS/SS: Range as likely to be Self-Sustaining as Not Self-Sustaining.
⁴ The jurisdiction recognizes Northwest Territories North and South as two subpopulations based on Nagy et al. (2011), and estimates a total population size in the NT of 6500.
⁵ The ratio between the population sizes for Nipisi and Slave Lake reported in the 2008 EC scientific review were used to derive updated population size estimates for each range from the 2010 estimate of 120 boreal caribou for both ranges combined (ASRD & ACA 2010).